This book explores risk taking and risk takers, and the key concept Silver introduces here the Village and the River.
These concepts revolve around people who are conservative versus those who take risks, however, that does not quite holistically capture. I found an apt metaphor recently: previous AI approaches like expert systems rely on knowledge graphs built by a set of christened experts whereas neural nets builds its “knowledge” ground up from massive datasets without too much concern about the accuracy of each individual piece. In that sense, the Village are institutionalists, people who prize accuracy, authority, and being part of the in-group which feeds into their dogmatic behaviors. Riverians on the other hand are people who are a little on the rough side, mavericks if you will, and are willing to go down and dirty with information and make risky bets. In the book, Silver presents poker players, venture capitalists, and AI people as examples of Riverians.
It’s an interesting portrayal and what I appreciate about it is how it captures the incongruity of say academics and their institutions which are very village, versus the rich and powerful capitalists like Thiel and Musk exemplifying Riverian traits. This idea of Village versus River is not simply about power or cultural cachet, there is a certain path dependence on decision making, and more importantly speaks to the environments that these individuals grew and thrived in. The book spends most of it’s length profiling these Riverians – it is obviously sympathetic to people who run in those circles and their contrarian tendencies – and makes the point that whether these people are conventionally successful or not, there is a certain merit to how they see the world.
Though some will find the book meandering; it sits at 470 pages or so of stories and tangents. I am an admirer of Silver’s nimble dance between anecdotal experiences, reporting, ideas, and explainers. The first third of the book is dedicated to exploring and explaining the world of poker, and this sets up the key themes around probabilistic thinking, decision making without complete information, and the physiology of risk taking. The probabilistic and risk piece is reminiscent of Nassim Taleb, which was extremely groundbreaking to me at the time, and one which does not come naturally. And I’m sure that is Silver’s intention as he spend three chapters on the rise and fall of SBF, interrogating his world view in an interesting foray into the most destructive incarnation of probabilistic thinking. Overall, On the Edge reads remarkably conversational, so while lengthy it didn’t feel effortful to go through.
I think we all have parts of us that are Village-like and parts of us that are River-like. Things that we hold to be sacrosanct and true through reasoning or indoctrination, and things that we are contrarian about. Sometimes they exist in the same plane which creates a contradiction and tension in us. That part exists and is inevitable. What I find useful being in dialog with this book is how it gave me the vocabulary to trace through the different parts in my belief system, and challenges me on what to take more seriously, and what to let go.